More Shots on Target = fewer of those shots scored in FIFA 20

Anyone who has played FIFA has had one of those games where they pepper the goal and cannot score and the opponent has one or two shots on target and scored them all.

I wanted to see if shooting accuracy changes when a player has more shots on target for a sample of 1141 games I looked at the number of goals scored, shots and shots on target for 3 sample groups; Less than 6 shots on target, between 6 and 11 shots on Target and More than 11 shots on target.

I then calculated the % shots on Target, % Shots on target scored and the % shots Scored. For myself the results are below.

Less than 6 shots on target6 to 11 Shots on TargetMore than 11 shots on TargetTotal
Goals72311901052018
Shots 290546164057926
Shots on Target178334083275518
% Shots on Target61%74%81%70%
% Shots on Target Scored41%35%32%37%
% Shots Scored24.9%25.8%25.9%25.5%

In games where their were less than 6 shots on target the % shots on target was 61% which is less than average. However when I had a shot on target I scored 41% of then. The overall conversion of shots to goals was 24.9% slightly below average.

For games where I have more than 11 shots on Target the % shots on target was 81% which is higher than average however the % of those shots scored was 32% which is less than average however the overall conversion of shots to goals was 25.8% which is just above average.

I compared each sample to the rest of the population to see if the differences observed were statistically relevant.

Less than 6 shots on targetMore than 11 shots on Target
% Difference-12.7%11.9%
% Shots on TargetZ score -11.8505.066
Normal Distribution0.0%100.0%
% Difference5.8%-4.8%
% Shots on Target scoredZ score 4.20-1.74
Normal Distribution100.00%4.09%
% Difference-0.8%0.5%
% shots ScoredZ score -0.8290.239
Normal Distribution20%59%

For games where I had less than 6 shots on Target my overall % shots on target was 12.7% lower than in the games where I had more than 6 shots on Target. However in those same games the % of shots scored was 5.8% higher than in games I have more than 6 shots on Target.

The Z score for % shots on Target was -11.850 which is a highly significant result. The z score for % shots score was 4.2 also a highly significant results.

For the overall shots to goal ratio this was marginally different and that difference was insignificant.

Therefore we can conclude on average in games where I have a low number of shots on target I found it harder to hit the target with a shot however once on target I was more likely to score. Overall this did not influence the chance of scoring a shot at goal. This would indicated in those games my opponent was more skilful and restricted my shots on goal however the coding of the game assisted my shooting to make it more effective or the goal keeping less effective when I managed to get a good opportunity.

For games where I had more than 1 shots on Target my overall % shots on target was 11.9% higher than in the games where I had less than 11 shots on Target. However in those same games the % of shots scored was 4.8% lower than in games I have less than 11 shots on Target.

The Z score for % shots on Target was 5.064 which is a highly significant result. The z score for % shots score was -1.74 also a highly significant results.

For the overall shots to goal ratio this was marginally different and that difference was insignificant.

Therefore we can conclude on average in games where I have a high number of shots on target I found it easier to hit the target with a shot however once on target I was less likely to score. Overall this did not influence the chance of scoring a shot at goal. This would indicated in those games my opponent was less skilful and my scoring opportunities were easier however the coding of the game negatively impacted my shooting to make it less effective or the goal keeper was more effective so I scored fewer of those opportunities.

I then calculated the same for my opponent.

Less than 6 shots on target6 to 11 Shots on TargetMore than 11 shots on TargetTotal
Goals7461427962269
Shots 289351294058427
Shots on Target170736613255693
% Shots on Target59%71%80%68%
% Shots on Target Scored44%39%30%40%
% Shots Scored25.8%27.8%23.7%26.9%
Less than 6 shots on targetMore than 11 shots on Target
% Difference-12.9%13.4%
% Shots on TargetZ score -12.0005.623
Normal Distribution0.0%100.0%
% Difference5.4%-11.0%
% Shots on Target scoredZ score 3.79-3.94
Normal Distribution99.99%0.00%
% Difference-1.8%-3.4%
% Shots on Target scoredZ score -1.744-1.510
Normal Distribution4%7%

This shows the same pattern. In games where the team had fewer shots on target overall the Number of shots on Target was significantly lower however the % shots on target scored was higher.

In games where the team had more shots on target overall the Number of shots on Target was significantly higher however the % shots on target scored was lower.

In conclusion having more shots on targets reduces the chance of scoring from those shots. Having fewer shots on target increases the chance of scoring from the shots.

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